中美国际收支数据

我用的是简单的数字 当我们第一次考虑到 I used simplified numbers when we first thought about 中国政府如何干预 how the Chinese government intervened 外汇市场 以保持它的货币贬值 in foreign currency markets to keep their currency devalued. 我想在这个视频做的 What I want to do in this video is 是看一些实际数字 to look at some of the real numbers. 这些数据来自美国经济分析局的网站 bea.gov So this is from the US bureau economic analysis: bea.gov 那是我获得数据的网址 This is the url where I actually got these data. 这里是美国与中国之间的支付平衡表 This right over here is the US balance of payments relative to China. 这里是目前的数据 This part right over here is the current account, 告诉了我们进口与出口的状况 which just really tells us the imports versus exports. 这里是资本账户 And this over here is the capital account 有时叫做财务账户 sometimes called financial account 主要看你如何记账 depending on how you are accounting for it. 这是告诉我们 And this is telling us about 资产所有权的流入或流出 the inflow or the outflow of ownership of assets. 因此 这是商品 这是资产 So this is goods. This is assets. 你可以把它看作是金钱或证券或其他类似的东西 You can think of it as money or securities or other things like that. 现在你可以从2006年开始看一下 Now you can look from 2006. 2006年 我们出口了价值720亿美元的东西到中国 In 2006 we did export something to China 72 billion worth. 2006年这是以百万美元为单位 In 2006 this is in millions of dollars. 所以72000就是720亿 增加到850亿 So 72 thousand is 72 billion increased to 85 billion, 2009年出口停留在950亿 95 billion stayed at around 95 billion in 2009. 但是美国进口了更多 达3300亿 But the United States imported a ton more 330 billion. 2006年3300亿 2007年3800亿 330 billions in 2006. 380 billions in 2007. 2008年约为4000亿 Almost 400 billions in 2008. 所以我们2008年的对华贸易赤字约3000亿 So we running almost 300 billion trade deficit in 2008 relative to China. 2009年 它下降了一点 And in 2009, it goes down a little bit. 看起来是2600亿的贸易赤字 This looks like about 260 billion trade deficit. 那实在是因为我们美国减少了进口 So that’s really because we United States imported fewer goods. 在很大程度上 那很可能是因为 To a large degree, that’s probably because of the US recession 美国经济衰退导致消费总的减少 where consumption in general slowed down. 所以我们减少购买商品和服务 So we would bought fewer goods and services 无论从任何人那里购买 包括我们自己和中国 from pretty much anyone including ourselves or China. 现在你能看到 在财务报表中的差别 Now you can see that being offset in the financial account. 这在一定程度上告诉我们真相 This, to some degree, tells us the story. 但它不会给我们关于中国全部真相 But it doesn't give us full story of the Chinese. 这仅仅是中国政府 This is just the Chinese government. 这是全部中国的所有权 This is all Chinese ownership. 但他们在增加对美国资产的拥有 But they are increasing their ownership of US assets. 这些资产 他们可能是美国国债 短期和长期债券 Those assets they could be US treasuries, notes and bills. 可能是美国股票 也可能是美国房地产 These could be US stocks. These could be US real estate. 但是你可以看到每年 这是增加的 But you can see each year this is the increase. 美国人在中国购买资产 Americans are buying assets in China 2006年花了50亿美元 2007年为20亿 5 billion dollars in 2006, 2 billions in 2007, 2008年为120亿元 在2009年180亿美元 12 billions in 2008, 18 billions in 2009. 从某种程度上说 这受制于 To some degree, this is limited by 中国政府施加的限制 restrictions imposed by the Chinese government. 你可以看到 中国人在美国购买更多的资产 As you can see Chinese are buying way more assets in the US. 这其实是中国给人的印象 This is really kind of that picture of the Chinese 尤其是中国的中央政府 especially the Chinese central government 买入美元来做到这一点 is buying US assets to do that. 他们用人民币购买美元 They have to buy dollars with Yuan 使美元强劲 which keeps the dollars strong 以使他们的货币保持弱势 and it allows their currency stay weak, 其中 在一定程度上或在很大程度上 which, to some degree or to a large degree, 使这个贸易赤字的平衡 保持在现有水平 allows the balance of this trade deficit to stay where it is. 现在我给你一个谜语 Now I'll leave you with one conundrum. 在很大程度上 这些数字 To a large degree, this is, these numbers right here, 他们抵消了贸易赤字 特别是在2008年 they are offsetting the trade deficit, especially in 2008. 中国购买的美国资产 The Chinese bought way more US assets than 实际上远超贸易赤字 actually even the trade deficit they more than made up for it. 但在2009年 他们的购买 But in 2009 you don't see them buy enough 不足以弥补贸易赤字 to make up for the trade deficit. 他们买了1430亿 在净算的基础上 They bought 143 billons and actually on a net basis 它很可能是约1200亿美元 it would probably be about 120 something billion, 它不足以弥补整个2600亿美元 which doesn’t make up for the whole 260 billion, 所以他们又如何仍保持自己的货币挂钩美元呢 so how did they still keep their currency pegged. 我们将要仔细研究的答案是 And the answer we are going to look in more detail 他们不必直接购买美国资产 is they don't have to directly buy US assets. 他们可以购买资产 或者 They could buy assets or 他们可以从其他国家购买货币 they could buy currency from another country. 这将使该货币升值的压力 That will put upward pressure on that currency. 让我在这里阐述 Let me report it over here. 中国可以去购买美国的货币 或者 China could go and buy US currency or 它可以到另一个国家购买他们的货币 it could go to another country and buy their currency. A国是会感到压力 Country A is going to feel pressure. 它的货币会升值 Its currency is going to go up in value. 它不希望出现这种情况 因为它会伤害其贸易 And it doesn't want that, because it will hurt its trade. 因此 它可能会去购买美国资产 以保持它的货币贬值 So it might go and buy US assets to keep it devalued. 这在图表上看不出来 That would not show up in that chart. 我们将在下一个视频研究它 We will look into that in the next video. 这是可汗学院的萨尔曼可汗为CNBC讲课 This is Salman Khan of the Khan Academy for CNBC.