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可汗的2060年猜想. Sal Khan 创建




in the last video I've mentioned how I've been asked to make predictions for the Year 2060 and the last one I focused on education that's obviously what what I'm working on now so I I have some opinions about that but what I want to do in this video is do maybe slightly more broad and wild predictions and my one prediction I'll make is on probably completely not going to predict the real reality of 2060 and probably the really big things to predict I will completely miss but with that out of the way it is fun to predict things so let's give a shot so the first area that I will predict is what's going to happen in the field of medicine and in particular I think that the human lifespan is going to increase dramatically so I'll be conservative and say that the lifespan the average human lifespan is going to be and especially in the developed world and once again hopefully by 2060 most of the world is developed the Hugh average human lifespan is going to be over a hundred years old and I won't say whether that's going to be a good or a bad thing there's arguments either way about about the proper way to to live and and and what happens to global populations but if the world is for the most part developed and educated you actually will probably have a lower a lower rate of reproduction and so you might actually have some space in the world for older people but this I think is there's a very strong chance of this happening because we are starting to understand the molecular basis of Aging it's not a it's not a given thing that that because of some form of wear and tear things have to die at after 70 years or 80 years or 90 years and we're starting to understand the mechanisms and how to maybe improve the repair mechanisms or how to augment it in some way so I definitely think this is going to happen I well I don't know whether it's going to be a positive or negative but it's likely to happen the next thing and this is kind of closely related this is still biological is you're going to have a close integration between the digital and the biological so digital digital and biological and once again I won't make any statement of whether this is a good or a bad thing but it seems like it's just an extrapolation the direction we're already going in digital and biological integration so already you're getting more and more in your hand held devices imagine when your handheld when your screen is now no longer in your palm but it's being projected onto your retina from some little thing and then eventually you have a direct connection with your retina and your brain can directly access areas of memory through just direct through some biological and and and digital interface so I definitely think this is going to happen this is a big deal because this is starting to and I think it's already happening with what some lot of what you see around technology it's really going to it's really going to reshape what the individual human experience is going to be we already see people kind of living in virtual realities and playing these these these immersive games and spending all of their time on social networking platforms what happens when they're literally plugged in all the time when almost their cell phone is in the brain I don't know I'm not going to comment whether it's a good or a bad thing but it does look like a trend and that's going to keep on going through the next 50 years now if we take that even further we're talking about a digital and biological integration but if you go at the extreme and actually it's probably both of these top two things combined in some way is that we are learning and once again not making a comment whether it's good or bad it's just an extrapolation of what we're already seeing we are seeing more and more ability to understand our genome to molecularly target things to manipulate actual biology and so what you have is that you can actually have let me write this manipulation manipulation of biology and why this is on some level creepy it could be creepy or it could be exciting depending on how it all plays out but it could do things like augment intelligence augment human intelligence which would if you think about all the progress of society and all the things that already accelerating imagine what except house aasaiya T will change if intelligence itself is augmented you know and as someone with a limited intelligence I can't even imagine what will happen as soon as you do this and obviously the more you augment intelligence the more that you can you more you can learn how to augment intelligence and increase lifespan and do digital BOTS and biological integration even more so these things I see as some form of a trend we'll see how it all plays out and hopefully it plays it out in the in the in the in the kind of the the feel-good care-bear version versus the kind of you know some type of crazy society and we all turn into the Borg in some way now the other trend and I'm just these are the things that just popped into my brain today when I pressed record but the other trend that I think is interesting is some of the things that we've taken for granted in terms of how nations integrate and interact with each other and nation states in particular interact with each other and just as a kind of an overview so there's a notion called a nation a nation state and in everyday language the word nation and the word state almost means the same thing but they kind of mean different things if you want to be a little bit more formal about and that's why people use the word nation-state they don't that's like you know to a lot of people it doesn't say mean saying like state state the difference between a nation in the state is these are a group of people that feel some type of common identity it could be a language it could be a culture it could be a value system so this is some kind of common identity and it often is somehow associated with geography but it does not have to be associated with geography it could even be a religion or it could be whatever else that's what a nation is a state a state is a formal governance structure that makes the laws and has the institutions to make to make society function now a nation-state is what most of us live in today because it both has an identity and some type of formal institutions so a very pure nation state would be someplace like Japan where there's there's relatively uniform in terms of ethnicity and religion and in terms of culture and you have that same group of people our governor our governing in themselves in a place like the United States ethnicity religion that's diverse but what gives identity is a notion of shared values and a notion of maybe a common history or whatever else for a certain kind of worldview and obviously there's a formal state structure now what I think is going to be interesting here and I actually have no idea how all of this is going to play out but when you see things like some of the revolutions in the Middle East to do to things like people being able to communicate irrespective of the traditional media I think there's going to be some interesting questions on what happens to the nation state especially nation states that that that are able to secure their power by by kind of having a bottleneck on access to information and all of that is I think going to change in a very dramatic way as you have more and more integration between people cross-border communications when people realize that the people on the other side of the border really aren't that different than themselves and another interesting thing even the notion of democracy and once again I don't know how it's going to play out but all notions of represents representational democracy that we have today are somewhat based on geography they're somewhat based on geography and that's because when the the major representational democracies came about that was the best way to represent each other hey let me pick some representatives from our County or from our region and they'll go elect other representatives and they'll go to the national government but now that we have this instantaneous communication with people you might be able to have different types of a representational democracy or maybe you could even have more direct democracies who knows because of because of things like communication and technology and whatever else and then the other way that I think nation-states are the way they fundamentally interaction when a change is actually in things like warfare and once again already seeing this trend in particular I think developed countries are not going to have humans on the front line no humans no humans on the front line and depending on your point of view this could be a very good thing or it could be a kind of a scary thing because if you have no humans on the front line and you're already seeing things like this with these Predator drones predator Predator drones and you see these kind of these these robot bomb these robot bomb detectors and on things like that and it doesn't even have to be these big things there's already a DARPA funded project to work on miniature insects that could be used as some form of reconnaissance or you can imagine eventually they could have these little things on them that could knock someone out or who what they do the exciting things is is that all of a sudden a huge shot and so hopefully military casualties would go down the scary thing here is if you if you don't have humans on the frontline nations might be willing to enter into war especially developed nations that they might not take it as seriously and so it might be something that they do a little bit more you know when they're in the mood and it would actually create a huge disparity between developed and developing nations when this happens and you already see that to a certain degree a developed nation they don't have to put as many humans in harm's way and it's purely driven by their their wealth to to have capital that can go you know these robots and these drones and their technological innovate innovation while in the developing countries they actually would have to use human beings so their costs would be much much much much higher so it's an interesting question and once again it's you know who knows how this plays out whether it's a good or bad thing in the long term and I think a similar thing with this is I think we're going to see more and more non-lethal weapons non-lethal non-lethal weapons which once again it's very similar to this it sounds like it's a good thing you know if there's a gun that instead of having to kill someone it incapacitates them in some way or it stuns them in some way you know kind of the classic Star Trek put your phasers on stun things the the the I guess the scarier version of non-lethal weapons is the threshold for using it becomes much lower so if a government is you know wants to subject its citizens or subject another group of citizens it can literally just stunned them or it can make them pass out or it could control them in some way and so this could be this could be a little bit scarier so who knows how all of this plays out so those are my those are my predictions or things to think about over the next 50 years these are just the things that happen to jump into my brain today probably based on some of the science fiction books I've been reading or whatever else but take them with a huge grain of salt I don't know if these things are really going to happen or not and I don't know if they're even a good thing or not but they seem to be a bit of an extrapolation of what we're already see